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The Late Pleistocene (0-800 ka) features characteristic ~100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles that underwent a stepwise amplitude increase at ~425 ka — the Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT). Post-MBT interglacials exhibit warmer Antarctic conditions, reduced Southern Ocean Sea ice, elevated atmospheric CO2, and higher global ocean temperatures compared to earlier "lukewarm" interglacials. Whether global mean sea level and ice volume experienced a similar stepwise change remains contentious owing to uncertainties in foraminiferal δ18O-based reconstructions, hindering mechanistic understanding of MBT origins. Here we demonstrate, using isotope-enabled climate modelling supported by geological evidence, that lukewarm interglacials maintain systematically lower sea levels than pre-industrial conditions, with excess ice volume concentrated in Antarctica. The increased Antarctic ice sheet enhances Antarctic Bottom Water production, preserving strong ocean stratification into interglacial periods. Our carbon cycle modelling further shows that this stratification inhibits the release of stored deep ocean carbon, explaining the relatively lower interglacial atmospheric CO2 levels and reduced deglacial CO2 outgassing rates prior to the MBT. These findings establish Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics as a primary driver of interglacial climate intensity throughout glacial-interglacial cycles.
Author(s): Xu Zhang, Yuchen Sun, Jinlong Du, Evan Gowan, Gregor Knorr, Chronis Tzedakis, Steve Barker
Lead presenter(s): Xu Zhang
Institution(s): British Antarctic Survey
We review the future of the Antarctic Peninsula under a low (SSP 1-2.6), medium-high (SSP 3-7.0) and high (SSP 5-8.5) emissions future. Higher emissions will result in increased temperatures, more days above 0°C, and increased liquid precipitation. This will intensify extreme events such as ocean heat waves and atmospheric rivers, encouraging increased melt from glaciers and ice shelves. Ocean warming will be most severe under SSP 5-8.5, with sea surface temperatures warming by ~1.6°C and more frequent warm-water incursions onto the continental shelf. Under SSP5-8.5, Antarctic Sea ice may decline <20% in winter and <12% in the summer, the collapse of the Larsen C Ice Shelf and Wilkins Ice Shelf is likely by 2100 CE, and glaciers will undergo extensive grounding line retreat. Sea level contributions from the Peninsula could reach 7.5 ± 14.1 mm by 2100 CE and 116.3 ± 66.9 mm by 2300 CE. These system changes will impact biota, altering species richness and enhancing colonisation by non-native species. Following the SSP 1-2.6 scenario, combined with effective governance, will result in increased resilience and relatively modest changes. Higher emissions scenarios will damage pristine systems, cause sustained ice loss, be irreversible, and spread to Antarctic regions beyond the Peninsula.
Author(s): Bethan Davies, Angus Atkinson, Alison F. Banwell, Mark Brandon, Thomas Caton Harrison, Peter Convey, Jan De Rydt, Klaus Dodds, Rod Downie, Tamsin Edwards, Ella Gilbert, Bryn Hubbard, Kevin A. Hughes, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Joeri Rogelj, Hélène Seroussi, Martin Siegert, Julienne Stroeve, Jane Rumble
Lead presenter(s): Bethan Davies
Institution(s): Newcastle University
The Polar ice sheet accounting over 98 percent of Antarctica along with the enveloping sea ice, plays a vital role in impacting and influencing the nexus of atmosphere, climate change and ocean circulations. The Geophysical Resistivity (GPR) surveys, sediment coring from lakes and Ice core drilling at several locations, especially in the shelf regions of Ice Rises, has given insights into dynamics of ice sheet and high-resolution Paleoclimate data. Varied geomorphic landforms along the coast of eastern Antarctica suggest that the most recent phase of ice retreat was spatially heterogeneous. Ice retreat here comprised, thinning of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet by up to 500 m and the recession of the ice wall in kms. This retreat deposited moraines over the Schirmacher Oasis in cDML with minimal reworking. The optical dating of the recessional moraines to determine the timing of their final emplacement has revealed three phases of moraine deposition, during 158–125 ka; 76–50 ka and 22 ka to present. It has been suggested that decreased sea surface temperatures and increased sea ice cover of the surrounding oceans limited the moisture supply and led to the retreat of ice due to climate change. By~ 35 ka the SO became ice-free and has remained so, ever since. Antarctic Paleoclimate reconstruction using ice core and lake sediment cores has been worked out in details by earlier Indian workers. There is evidence, recorded in the lake sediments of low lying Larsemann Hills, of marine transgression due to variation in sea level, isotactic upliftment and close vicinity of the Hills to the marine environment. The Schirmacher Oasis, on the other hand has preserved various landforms–both erosional and depositional–typical of a periglacial environment along with proglacial lakes and epi shelf lakes signatures of marine influence. Further investigations are warranted in this direction of climate change in future too.
Author: Jayaraju. N
Lead presenter: Jayaraju. N
Institution: Yogi Vemana University, India
Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica’s fastest changing glacier, is almost entirely marine-based and represents the largest uncertainty in sea-level rise forecasts.
Analyses of rock samples recovered from beneath shallow ice cover show this sector of the ice sheet recovered after mid-Holocene thinning to below the modern level. However, climate models indicate conditions over coming centuries will differ greatly from those under which recovery occurred. In particular, warmth of water on the continental shelf, the main driver of ice loss, is expected to increase.
Although measurements reveal less melting than expected beneath much of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, retreat along most of the grounding zone continues at 0.6–1.2 km yr-1. Tidally forced intrusions of sea water several kilometres into the grounding zone, shown by satellite and field observations, may contribute to this rapid retreat.
Even if water on the continental shelf remains relatively cool, the latest coupled ice-ocean models predict continuing rapid grounding zone retreat that will eventually accelerate as Marine Ice Sheet Instability takes hold. It is highly likely that Thwaites Glacier will eventually be lost, which will destabilise adjoining parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, increasing the committed long-term rise in global mean sea level by more than 3 m.
Author(s): Rob Larter, Ted Scambos, Peter Davis, Marianne Karplus, Margie Turrin and the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration
Lead presenter(s): Rob Larter
Institution(s): British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK, University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, USA, University of Texas at El Paso, Texas, USA, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, USA
The Last Interglacial (~130-118 ka) was warmer than the preindustrial Holocene, making it a useful analogue for future climate. Constraining ice sheet behaviour during the Last Interglacial can indicate the tipping points of ice sheet instability mechanisms and thus inform prediction of future ice loss and sea level rise. The largely marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is particularly vulnerable to such instabilities, but evidence of its collapse in the geological record is ambiguous. Here, radiogenic neodymium and strontium isotopes, detrital mineral ages, heavy mineral counts and clast counts are used to infer provenance changes to sediment deposited at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1524 in the Ross Sea. Peak radiogenic neodymium isotope compositions (εNd values) of -5.5 during the Last Interglacial exceed those of any other measured Pleistocene interglacials, including the Holocene. Geological endmembers that can explain this difference are proposed, each implying significant ice loss from the WAIS and suggesting more extreme ice sheet retreat compared to other Pleistocene interglacials. The presence of two radiogenic neodymium isotope peaks may also point to two episodes of WAIS ice loss. These findings aid our understanding of Antarctic ice sheet behaviour, helping improve estimates of Antarctic Sea level contribution.
Author(s): Sophia Marr, James Marschalek, Tina van de Flierdt, Guido Pastore, Luca Zurli, Sidney Hemming, Pieter Vermeesch
Lead presenter(s): Sophia Marr
Institution(s): Imperial College London
Accelerated glacier mass loss across the Antarctic Peninsula has consequences for sea level rise and local ecology. However, there are few direct glaciological observations available from this region. Here, we reveal glacier changes on the James Ross Archipelago between 2010 and 2023. The median rate of glacier area loss (remote sensing derived) increased over the study period, with the most significant changes observed in smaller glaciers. In-situ measurements show that ablation has prevailed since 2019/20 with the most negative point surface mass balance change measured as -1.39 ± 0.12 m w.e. at Davies Dome and Lookalike Glacier in 2022/23 (200 to 300 m a.s.l.). We identified a tripling of the frontal velocity of Kotick Glacier in 2015, which combined with terminus surface elevation gains (bulging), suggests that this is the first surge-type glacier identified in Antarctica from velocity and surface elevation change observations. We contend that the glacier recession rate has increased due to increased air temperatures (0.24 ± 0.08 °C yr-1, 2010 to 2023), decreased albedo, and glacier elevation change feedback. These processes could decrease glacier longevity on the archipelago. Future research should prioritise monitoring albedo and rising equilibrium-line altitudes and identify glaciers most vulnerable to rapid future mass loss.
Author(s): Christopher D. Stringer, Mia W. Macfee, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Kamil Láska, Zbyněk Engel, Michael Matějka, Connie Harpur, Daniel Nývlt, Duncan J. Quincey, Bethan J. Davies
Lead presenter(s): Dr Chris Stringer
Institution(s): Leeds Beckett University
Turbidity currents are increasingly recognised as important mechanism for sediment and organic carbon transport into the deep ocean, yet their structure, behaviour, and long‐term impact in Antarctic submarine canyons remain largely unknown. Here, we present observations from the Wilson Canyon, located in the Adare Basin north of the Western Ross Sea. This submarine canyon reaches depths exceeding 2100 m and lies in a region of active dense water cascading. A mooring deployed within the canyon from 31 January 2023 to 14 February 2024 was equipped with a downward-facing Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP), a CTD, a sediment trap, and an optical backscatter turbidity sensor to monitor water flow and particulate transport. Our data reveal clear signatures of dense water cascading through the canyon, as well as the first documented turbidity current in Antarctica. This turbidity event persisted for approximately 13 days. The structure is characterised by a leading front of cold, salty, and dense fluid that preceded a trailing body of finer, suspended sediment. These insights are vital for assessing how climate extremes and shifting oceanographic conditions influence sediment transport, organic carbon burial, and the contribution of Antarctic margins to global climate regulation.
Author(s): Corbyn Johannes, Dr Jenny Gales, Dr Philip Hosegood, Dr Jess Hillman
Lead presenter(s): Corbyn Johannes
Institution(s): University of Plymouth
Multi-decadal, year-round sampling off the West Antarctic Peninsula shows strong ocean responses to varying levels of sea ice cover. In winter, periods without fast ice cover expose the surface ocean to increased wind stress and heat loss to the atmosphere. Mixed layer depths reach 150m, with cooling extending into the modified Circumpolar Deep Water, an old, warm and carbon rich water mass. This release of heat to the atmosphere further delays sea ice formation, creating positive feedback within the season. The increased ventilation of the deeper waters, together with the exposed sea surface, leads to greater winter outgassing of CO2.
The reduced stratification from this mixing continues into summer, creating a greater connection between the surface and top 100m of the water column. In summer this leads to greater heat uptake, as surface heating is repeatedly mixed down to greater depths. This extra warming exceeds the winter cooling, leading to increased heat content in the top 100m by autumn and so a positive feedback effect towards reducing sea ice cover across years. Below 100m there is net cooling, with subsequent warming through advection being a multi-year process, depending on the extent and frequency of the low sea ice anomalies.
Author(s): Hugh Venables, Elise Droste, Michael Meredith, Alexander Brearley, Katharine Hendry
Lead presenter(s): Hugh Venables
Institution(s): BAS & National Oceanography Centre
Polar ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the rates and amplitudes of climate change, which exceed global means and include habitat contraction. Here, we take two approaches to understand the impacts of sea-ice changes on a sea-ice associated seabird, the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea). First, using GPS tracking devices and satellite imagery we examine snow petrel foraging ranges during recent breeding seasons, when record sea-ice minima have been recorded. We confirm a close association between snow petrels and sea ice extent, which evolves during the breeding season as sea ice contracts. Second, using preserved snow petrel stomach oils, we constrain the distribution of snow petrels in East Antarctica from the Last Glacial Maximum until present. During past cold climates, when sea ice was more extensive and the Antarctic ice sheet expanded, we identify displacement of some snow petrel populations away from the continent, although some refugia remain. Our results show that the availability of both foraging and breeding habitat defines refugia, making responses of polar species to future climate change complex to predict.
Author(s): Erin L. McClymont, Ewan Wakefield, Eleanor Maedhbh Honan, Anna Rix, A. Rus Hoelzel, Michael J. Bentley, Yasmin Cole, Thale Damm-Johnsen, W. James Grecian, Dominic A. Hodgson, Zhongxuan Li, Claire Penny, Kerry A. Strong, Mark A. Stevenson, Thomas Wardley, Philippa Ascough, Stewart S.R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, Stephen G. Willis, Richard A. Phillips
Lead presenter(s): Erin McClymont
Institution(s): Department of Geography, Durham University UK
Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS) is located in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica. Here, warm water is transported onto the continental shelf and can access ice shelf cavities, causing melting, glacial retreat and thus sea level rise. The circulation of this warm water, and the heat transport within ice shelf cavities, remain mostly unknown. We present observations of ocean velocity, turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate (ε) from microstructure measurements, and heat flux calculations from over 100 km of dive tracks within the DIS cavity using an underwater vehicle. Background rates of ε are 10-10 W kg-1 with patches of higher ε of 10-8 W kg-1. Higher ε is associated with stronger along-slope currents, higher vertical current shear, steeper bathymetry, and positive temperature anomalies. Average vertical heat fluxes are on the order of 0.1 W m-2 and maximum heat fluxes reach 52 W m-2. This is comparable to the 59 W m-2 to 176 W m-2 needed to maintain observed melt rates at DIS. Higher average vertical heat fluxes must occur in areas of the cavity not resolved in this study.
Author(s): Maren Elisabeth Richter, Karen J. Heywood, Rob A. Hall, Peter E.D. Davis
Lead presenter(s): Dr Maren Richter
Institution(s): British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3~0ET, United Kingdom
Antarctic ice shelves are strongly influenced by the surrounding oceanic conditions, particularly temperature, salinity, and circulation. Forced by current global warming, the basal melt rate of these ice shelves has been accelerating, leading to concern about their future and potential tipping points for the Antarctic ice sheet as a whole. Modelling the interactions between ice shelves and the water underneath can provide insights into tipping point mechanisms. Here, we present the results from a suite of idealised experiments carried out by the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) with an interactive Antarctic ice sheet component, designed to illustrate how the Earth System would function at different global warming levels (GWLs). The results indicate that observable metrics of the contrast of onshore and offshore water properties (temperature and salinity) could serve as early warnings for Ross Ice Shelf tipping. Additional experiments that artificially add freshwater at the ice margin allow us to account for the uncertainty in the simulated climate by UKESM and assess the impact of Antarctic tipping on the wider Earth System at different GWLs. These findings emphasise the importance of including ice sheet components with detailed representations of shelf dynamics in Earth System models.
Author(s): Thi-Khanh-Dieu Hoang, Robin Smith, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Colin G. Jones
Lead presenter(s): Thi-Khanh-Dieu Hoang
Institution(s): National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, UK
Accurate modelling of the Antarctic ice sheet is imperative for robust projections of Antarctica’s future sea level contribution, but many processes within the ice sheet are still poorly understood. Basal friction is known to be an important process, but properties at the bed are difficult to measure and also vary considerably over space and time. To approach this, many models treat bed friction as an unknown and solve an inverse problem to match surface velocities with satellite observations. However, inverse problems are often ill-posed and may obscure the fundamental uncertainty we have about basal processes.
Here, we attempt to explore this uncertainty by treating certain hyperparameters within the inversion as uncertain. Using the BISICLES ice sheet model, we conduct sensitivity tests by sampling extreme values of these hyperparameters to create an ensemble of initial states. We then propagate these initial states forward in a high-emissions future scenario up to 2300. We find that the moderate sensitivity of Antarctic Sea level contribution to these hyperparameters is comparable to some other commonly perturbed parameters in ice sheet models. However, they are less sensitive than similar experiments carried out using the Ùa ice sheet model, indicating some model dependence.
Author(s): Dr Tamsin Edwards, Dr Alex Bradley, Dr Stephen Cornford, Dr Matt Trevers, Dr Lauren Gregoire, Dr Chris Brierley
Lead presenter(s): Jonathan Barnsley
Institution(s): King’s College London, University of Bristol, University of Leeds, University College London
Increasing ice mass loss has been observed in the West Antarctic over the last 30 years as a response to enhanced ocean heat fluxes, resulting in a larger number of large icebergs calved from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers. These icebergs often travel long distances across the ocean from their source, and discharge their freshwater at different depths through basal, sidewall and surface melting. In doing so, this meltwater provides significant buoyancy forcing to the upper ocean and can also be a source of micronutrients supporting biological productivity. Despite this importance, iceberg impacts on the physics and biogeochemistry of the upper ocean are not represented in current generation climate models, a key deficiency for future predictability as many shelves are predicted to transition from “cold” to “warm” status.
This presentation details physical and bio-optical oceanographic measurements made around several icebergs in various locations in the West Antarctic, to uncover the water mass modification processes that occur. First, we detail highly proximate underwater glider measurements around the A-68A and A-84 icebergs in the Scotia and Bellingshausen Seas respectively. In both cases, large changes in upper ocean stratification are observed, warming and destratifying the Winter Water layer in response to upwelling basal melt, while the near-surface layers undergo an increase in stratification due to surface and sidewall melt. Furthermore, there is evidence of enhanced biological productivity occurring around 36 hours after the iceberg has passed a particular location, implying a delayed response to the increased supply of micronutrients within the photic zone. Second, we detail measurements of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation and heat fluxes around a grounded iceberg close to the British Antarctic Survey station at Rothera. When compared to a period when the iceberg is absent from the site, dissipation rates and upward heat fluxes from the warm and salty Circumpolar Deep Water layer are enhanced by up to a factor of 20. This implies that melting icebergs may be a significant contributor the surface heat budget of many coastal fjords in the West Antarctic into which marine-terminating glaciers calve.
Author(s): J. Alexander Brearley, Natasha S. Lucas, Laura Cimoli, Katharine R. Hendry, Theo Spira, Anne Braakmann-Folgmann, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael P. Meredith, Geraint A. Tarling, Mark E. Inall, Karen J. Heywood, Joshua Lanham and Meredith Meyer
Lead presenter(s): J. Alexander Brearley
Institution(s): British Antarctic Survey, Bangor University, University of Cambridge, Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, The Arctic University of Norway, Scottish Association for Marine Science, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Weather and climate extremes becoming more frequent and intense are a visible manifestation of climate change, and they have a strong impact on the natural environment and society. They are projected to become more frequent and intense in all areas of the world, including the Antarctic. Despite the fact that Antarctic extreme weather events (AEWE) have global implications, they are less well studied and understood than their counterparts in the rest of the globe.
The NERC PICANTE project (2024-2027) aims to close this knowledge gap, to better understand the characteristics and drivers of AEWE, and to disentangle the roles of human influence and natural climate variability in changes to these events and their drivers, and to use this knowledge to predict future events and their impacts on Antarctic climate and ice.
We will present a project overview, and highlights of results so far, including a new dataset of hourly and daily temperature, precipitation, wind and pressure for selected Antarctic ice shelves, and of extremes, developed using high-resolution regional climate model historical simulations from the PolarRES project; an attribution study of the August 2024 East Antarctic heatwave, and an assessment of the risk of unprecedented Antarctic heat.
Author(s): Julie M. Jones, Sihan Li, Jennifer Catto, Daniel Clarkson, Michael Haigh, Edward Hanna, Paul Holland, Amber Leeson, Michelle Maclennan, Mal MacMillan, Andrew Orr, Friederike Otto, James Screen, Ian Simpson, Charlie Suitters, Yiming Sun, Hauso Tang, Leon Wei
Lead presenter(s): Julie M. Jones
Institution(s): University of Sheffield; University of Exeter, Lancaster University, British Antarctic Survey, University of Lincoln, Imperial College London
In the 1970s Pine Island Glacier experienced an unprecedented retreat after a 10,000-year period of stability, since then becoming one of the largest contributing glaciers to global sea level rise. Was it tipped off by a particularly strong warming event, or did climate change play a role? This is a difficult question: in West Antarctica, both past conditions and the influence of climate change are poorly constrained. This work uses the WAVI ice sheet model, developed at the British Antarctic Survey, and a novel Bayesian calibration method to constrain this deep uncertainty and attribute the glacier's retreat.
Author(s): Polina Sevastyanova, Rosie Williams, Alex Bradley, Robert Arthern
Lead presenter(s): Polina Sevastyanova
Institution(s): University of Cambridge
The UK Polar Network (UKPN) is the UK branch of APECS, the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists. UKPN provides national and international networking opportunities for early career researchers (ECRs) working in and adjacent to polar science, and organises workshops, conferences, and training courses. In addition to working directly with ECRs, UKPN runs a variety of projects to support the inclusion of polar science in the UK school curricula and to host events that allow pupils, students, and the wider public to learn more about life and research in the polar regions, as well as the career paths open to school leavers in related fields. Equality, diversity, and inclusion are at the forefront of UKPN’s mission, and we provide an ECR voice on national and international panels. Here, we present an overview and update of UKPN activities over the past year, highlighting ECR contributions to UK polar science.
Author(s): Eleanor Maedhbh Honan, Lucy Stephenson, Louise Mercer, Connor Shiggins, Sam Hartharn-Evans, Claire Penny, Linnet Jessell, Anona Griffiths, Leeza Pickering, Sophie Weeks, Fiona Old, Edmund Lea, Domino Jones, Phoebe Noble, Isabelle Sangha, Beth Langley, Anthony Chan, Aimee Sheppard, Sarah Barnard, Emily Adams, Peter Berthelemy, Polina Sevastyanova, Nadia Frontier, Saule Akhmetkaliyeva, Jasmine Rose, Ashmika Motee, Scott Lewis, Tarkan Bilge, Floortje Van Den Heuvel, Millie Harding, Anna Belcher, Conor Savage, Dylan Beard, Chloe Nunn, Ainsley Hatt, Tom Chudley, Birgit Rogalla, Shalaka Patil, Megan Malpas
Lead presenter(s): Eleanor Maedhbh Honan
Institution(s): UK Polar Network
Different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet have different thresholds when they become vulnerable to a warming climate. Studying multiple past warm climates at different levels of warmth allows us to assess where these different thresholds may be. We focus on two past warm intervals: the last interglacial (LIG) and the mid-Pliocene (MPWP) 1) The MPWP is the closest analogue to the modern-day in terms of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Sea-level estimates from the MPWP can provide useful constraint to ice sheet model physics, although the usefulness is limited by large uncertainties on these sea level proxies. Here we combine existing sea level estimates with newly generated ice volume estimates. We use these data to constrain an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations for the MPWP. 2) Despite decades of study it is still not known whether the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed or not during the last interglacial. A new international drilling campaign is trying to determine the history of past WAIS collapse and the climate conditions that caused it. Ultimately our improved understanding of past ice sheet retreat will allow us to produce improved estimates of future sea level rise.
Author(s): Edward Gasson, Carrie Lear, Rob DeConto, Tina van de Flierdt, Ruthie Halberstadt, Jim Marschalek
Lead presenter(s): Edward Gasson
Institution(s): University of Exeter, UK, University of Cardiff, UK, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA, Imperial College, UK, University of Texas, USA
Whilst Antarctica is climatically the coldest and driest continent on Earth, it is at the same time subject to huge swings in the weather, particularly around the coast. Extreme weather events can result in melting and disintegration of ice shelves, driven by surface melt ponding, rainfall, strong winds and ocean swells. Thus, Antarctic weather extremes and their impacts are often compound in nature.
The drivers of such extremes are multi-faceted with linkages to local- to regional-scale conditions (e.g., sea ice cover and föhn winds). Large-scale phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) play a role via a tropical-extratropical teleconnection. Using a novel database of Antarctic weather extremes under development in the NERC ExtAnt project, based on in situ observations and state-of-the-art regional climate model hindcasts at unprecedently high resolution (~11-12 km; driven by ERA5 reanalysis), we will explore some of the regional changes in extremes that have occurred, particularly since 2015. An example of a noteworthy summer heatwave will be shown over the Antarctic Peninsula, demonstrating the significance of extreme weather events, and how they impact key ice shelves and sensitive ecosystems.
Author(s): Ryan Williams, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Tom Bracegirdle, Will Dow, Ian Simpson
Lead presenter(s): Ryan Williams
Institution(s): British Antarctic Survey
